The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (CDNX) is down some 23% since the recent market peak on March 6, 2011. We all know that stocks on the TSX Venture generally go through a summer pullback period before roaring back in the last quarter of the year. In order to put the most recent pullback in perspective it is worth taking a look at past cycles performance.

Below you see a chart showing the value and volume changes from the spring peaks to summer troughs of the CDNX.

* The "Black Swan" year 2008, and the recovery period in 2009 are excluded from the chart.

Based on historical data it appears that both the volume of trading, and the value of the index is near the bottom for the current cycle. Although this is an important indicator, things are a lot more complicated. The potential for a Greek default, and a sluggish economic recovery are causing a lot of fear in the global markets and the buyers are not keen to get back in the markets.

In order to get a better understanding of where the markets are headed, I sat down for an interview with Bill Lupien, one of the most experienced and well respected traders in the industry.